Arianna Griffa
Senior Policy Manager - Global
Taking place from November 10-21 in the heart of the Amazon rainforest, the focus for this year’s Conference of the Parties is firmly set on implementation, adaptation, and demonstrating progress - with nature and deforestation adding to climate negotiations.
Geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts undoubtedly frame discussions in Brazil, even as the urgency of tackling worsening climate-related impacts increases. Raising ambition in country climate commitments, climate finance, adaptation, and nature are set to be the central topics of discussion.
It’s in this context that we echo the call to translate ambition into tangible delivery. IIGCC will use the conference to reiterate the need for clear, pragmatic, and decisive policy frameworks that unlock climate investment flows at the pace and scale needed to address systemic climate-related financial risks.
In the week before COP30, finance sector and business actors gathered in São Paulo to advance discussions on private sector solutions for financing the transition, including at an IIGCC member-only dinner.
Addressing the NDC ambition gap
2025 was the deadline for countries to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), offering an opportunity to make them more ambitious, implementable and investable. Despite some high-profile early submissions, including from the UK, many remain missing. This includes the EU, which as yet has only announced headline emissions reduction targets.
Analysing 64 submissions, the UN’s NDC Synthesis Report highlights a significant ambition gap between national climate plans and the goals of the Paris Agreement. Emissions trajectory is downward but countries are not decarbonising fast enough.
That said, the analysis does highlight positive improvements including on quality, sectoral coverage, national response to the Global Stocktake (GST) targets, and in whole-of-economy approaches.
It is vital that the headline GST goals agreed at COP28 are fully embedded in new NDCs. This including tripling renewable energy generation capacity, doubling energy efficiency, phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and halting and reversing deforestation by 2030.
Climate finance must include private finance
Climate finance took centre stage at the UN Bonn intersessional meetings in June. Key to this is the Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3 trillion, due for publication before COP30. It aims to set out a pathway to fill the finance gap for climate action in developing countries, building on the USD 300 billion agreed last year.
Mobilising all sources of finance to close this gap will be vital. Our response to the Roadmap consultation highlighted investor appetite for deeper collaboration, calling on policymakers to set out a clear path to capitalise on this intent. This must include private finance and secure formal endorsement from nation states.
Removing regulatory barriers, scaling blended finance to de-risk private capital, and strengthening public-private cooperation can all help to unlock climate finance in emerging markets and developing economies.
Adaptation is front and centre
The COP30 Presidency has raised climate adaptation to the forefront of discussions throughout the year, a topic which is front and centre for a growing number of investors.
Central to this is The Global Goal on Adaptation, a comprehensive set of indicators to enable countries to set targets and assess progress towards their adaptation goals, including on finance leveraged.
Discussions on adaptation finance are expected to cut across many topics, including National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), new country pledges for the Adaptation Fund, and mechanisms to mobilise private sources through the Baku to Belém Roadmap, to name just a few.
All of the above position COP30 as an opportunity to bolster adaptation finance by sending clear signals through new and reinforced commitments to funding resilience. Success will require renewed leadership from developed countries and new donors, alongside measures to unlock private capital for critical resilience investments.
The climate-nature nexus with deforestation at the core
Unignorable is the role Brazil plays in elevating nature, biodiversity and deforestation as part of the climate agenda. This comes after calls from biodiversity rich countries such as Colombia to build out synergies between the ‘climate COP’ and the Conference on Biological Diversity (CBD COP), with the latter running every second year.
Brazil’s much anticipated Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which the host nation aims to announce at COP30, looks set to be the headline nature announcement.
The TFFF is a blended finance structure which seeks to mobilise USD 125 billion to provide a long-term source of finance for countries that preserve their tropical forests. Investors are equally aware of the acute need to halt deforestation.
Signatories of the Finance Sector Deforestation Action, with IIGCC as the Secretariat, have made significant progress in managing financial risks related to agricultural, commodity-driven deforestation. It’s recent progress report highlighted that all FSDA investor signatories now have policies in place that either cover or address exposure to deforestation.
COP30 can reignite confidence in the process
This year’s climate conference can bring to light the progress being made under the multilateral process. We will continue to advocate for policies that support enhanced capital mobilisation to implement the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake and national climate goals. Making the case for frameworks and incentives that help scale up finance for adaptation and resilience is our second core focus.
More broadly, key to this will be greater integration of the climate and nature policy agenda, with deforestation firmly at the centre. The hope is that this tenth anniversary delivers on the goals of the Paris Agreement, by not only showcasing progress towards the transition, but also providing the platform and tools to accelerate action.
Keep up to date with our COP30 event guide and jargon-busting COP30 glossary. Interested in finding out more about IIGCC membership? Get in touch today.