Arianna Griffa
Senior Policy Manager - Global
The Baku to Belem Roadmap – promised by COP30 in Brazil this November – is considered vital to scale up the initial USD 300 billion public finance goal agreed at COP29. Our response to the UNFCCC consultation stresses a clear investor appetite to invest in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDE).
After difficult negotiations in Azerbaijan, the “Baku to Belem Roadmap to USD 1.3 trillion” aimed to alleviate concerns from developing countries that the USD 300 billion per year agreed at COP29 is well short of the funding required. It is a welcome step towards delivering finance at scale and a significant opportunity for public and private collaboration.
That said, the Roadmap’s effectiveness will depend on how this appetite is leveraged through an enabling environment that facilitates pragmatic engagement. Our response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) consultation aimed to make that case clear.
The consultation sets out near- to long-term actions to enhance all climate finance sources, addressing the needs and ambitions of developing countries. Mobilising private capital at scale is a particular focus.
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Investor appetite in action
Institutional investors are increasingly interested in sustainable opportunities in EMDEs. This appetite is already visible in existing and emerging initiatives, demonstrating how governments can catalyse private investment.
The UK Government’s new EMDE Investor Taskforce is helping institutional investors explore climate, transition, and sustainable investment opportunities over the next decade. At the same time, Denmark’s SDG Investment Fund mobilised over USD 2 billion for EMDEs in its first round, with private investors providing 60% of capital in the second fund launched in 2024.
With an enabling framework and clear policy signals, the Roadmap can leverage this momentum to support the trillions needed to deliver impact at scale.
Our submission outlines the economic, social and investment opportunities this can present to institutional investors. You can read our full response here.
The investment opportunities
The financial and economic case for adaptation and resilience is clear.
Recent research has found that every USD 1 invested in adaptation is likely to generate USD 10.50 in economic benefits, through avoided losses and recovery costs, over a 10-year period.
Early investments in mitigation and adaptation offer long-term economic and societal benefits by reducing emissions sooner and avoiding exponentially larger future losses.
However, realising these opportunities will require governments to address existing barriers and create the conditions needed to unlock private capital at scale.
Conditions for unlocking capital
Despite the strong economic case for adaptation, our response highlights that the current risk frameworks and regulatory incentives do not consistently encourage early action. Limited data, inconsistent metrics, and the fact that climate risks are not fully priced into investment strategies mean the value of resilience measures is often overlooked by financial actors.
Long-term success also relies on comprehensive national climate plans that integrate mitigation and adaptation targets with a clear investment focus, supported by sector decarbonisation roadmaps.
Developed countries have a crucial role in supporting developing countries to attract finance for their climate ambitions. They are well-positioned to provide concessional finance and risk-sharing instruments, particularly to support vulnerable regions with limited private adaptation investment.
Those countries can further lead efforts to leverage private capital for climate investments in developing countries by supporting innovative mechanisms and initiatives targeting institutional capital.
Undoubtedly, barriers remain. These include the limited availability of investment products aligned with investor needs, gaps in historical data on investment performance, and policy or regulatory frameworks that can inadvertently constrain capital flows.
Addressing these challenges is essential to ensure the Roadmap delivers on its full potential, unlocking large-scale investment for climate action in developing countries. Additionally, clear processes for reviewing progress and ensuring accountability – for example, through regular stocktakes at COP meetings – will be essential to maintain momentum and transparency.
Looking head
Addressing these challenges requires collaborative action: reviewing domestic and international regulations to remove unintended barriers, ensuring sustainable finance frameworks are applied proportionately in developing markets, and facilitating closer collaboration between investors and multilateral development banks and development finance institutions.
Stronger partnerships, improved access to investment data, and effective risk-sharing approaches can enhance the catalytic role of public finance and increase the impact of blended finance mechanisms.
The Roadmap offers a crucial opportunity to accelerate climate finance in developing countries.
To seize this opportunity, the COP29 and COP30 Presidencies must strive to deliver an ambitious Roadmap that sends clear signals to countries and the wider financial ecosystem, encouraging action to align incentives and financial flows with a net-zero, resilient and nature-positive future. We look forward to the publication of the Roadmap at COP30 and working with investors, policymakers, and international institutions to support its implementation beyond Belem.
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