The policy brief aims to inform our members about the new, legally binding EU economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 90% by 2040, expected from the European Commission in 2025.
Q1-Q2 2023: The European Commission held a public consultation on the 2040 climate target.
Q2 2023: The independent European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) published scientific advice recommending an EU emissions reductions target of 90-95% by 2040.
Q1 2024: The Commission published a non-legislative communication on the 2040 climate target, advocating for a reduction of emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels.
Q2/Q3 2025: The Commission confirmed that it will propose a legislative amendment to the European Climate Law to include a 2040 target of reducing emissions by 90%. Following delays, it is most likely that the proposal will be published in Q3 2025.
Q4 2025: The European Parliament and EU Member States are expected to negotiate and agree on what the 2040 target will be, based on the Commission’s proposal.
Q4 2025: The EU is expected to present its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in the run up to COP30. The NDC will cover the period up to 2035 and its ambition will be derived from the EU’s 2040 target.
As part of the European Climate Law 2021/1119, the European Commission is required to propose an intermediate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions target for 2040 in alignment with the EU's climate neutrality goal for 2050. The Commission has said it will put forward a legislative proposal on the EU 2040 target in Q1 or early Q2 2025 that will then be considered by the European Parliament and Council of the European Union for review and agreement.
In February 2024, the European Commission published its ‘Impact Assessment Report’ on the EU’s 2040 climate target, which supported reducing the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to a 1990 baseline.
The Commission’s proposal of -90% emissions is on the lower end of what was recommended by scientific advice from the independent European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) in 2023. The ESABCC recommends an EU emissions reductions target of 90-95% by 2040, relative to 1990. This recommendation is informed by 36 emissions scenarios taken from an analysis of more than 1,000 pathways, all of which adhere to a Paris Agreement aligned global temperature increase.
The EU 2040 climate target is expected to be agreed by EU institutions ahead of COP30 in Q4 2025 so that it can inform the EU’s next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submission under the Paris Agreement.
In July 2023, IIGCC submitted our consultation response to the Commission’s Call for Evidence on the EU 2040 Climate Target. In this response, we advocated for a target of “90-95%, or at least 90%” in alignment with the ESABCC’s scientific guidance.
In May 2024, IIGCC signed a letter on the EU 2040 target along with over 100 investors, business, and investor and business networks and associations, urging EU leaders to endorse a GHG emissions reduction target of at least 90% by 2040. The letter strongly urges the Environment and Climate ministers of the European Union to adopt a robust target that will boost the resilience of the EU, ensure energy security, and enhance competitiveness.
In particular, there is risk that (1) The agreed target will not reflect scientific guidance from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change; (2) If a target of 90% reductions is proposed by the Commission, it will come with unclear accounting flexibilities; (3) The Commission will be unable to implement measures to decarbonise key sectors at the pace required to meet a target of 90%.
Following a series of delays, the European Commission’s proposal for the 2040 Climate Target is expected in July 2025.
The EU’s 2024-2029 mandate began with Ursula von der Leyen restating the EU’s commitment to the European Green Deal. stating: This was accompanied by a commitment to propose a 2040 target of –90%, reiterated by Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra (Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth) at his reconfirmation hearing in late 2024 where he promised to "act fully in line with the [Scientific Advisory] Board’s advice... [and] use all instruments available to aim to enable the EU to reach the minimum recommended target of 90% net reductions.”
However, recent news has suggested there is a chance that the Commission’s proposal of 90% may be watered down or made more flexible to implement in response to political pressure. This comes after existing criticisms that a target of 90% is on the lower end of scientific guidance from the ESABCC and not reflective of global equity considerations.
The reported adjustments under consideration include: (1) Backloading emission cuts by slowing emissions reductions in the early 2030s and concentrating action near 2040; (2) Using international carbon credits to count towards the target of 90%; (3) Increasing the share of carbon removals; (4) Allowing member states to decarbonise certain sectors to offset others. Which of these adjustments will be used, and to what degree, has not been made clear.
The considered adjustments have received mixed reactions, with attention being drawn to how this will impact the EU’s primary focus of competitiveness and climate goals being pursued in tandem (e.g. the Clean Industrial Deal).
France has commented that a -90% target would only be supported if there is an ambitious Clean Industrial Deal outlining how industry is expected to decarbonise competitively.
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Ireland, Lithuania, Greece and Romania have not yet voiced their opinion on the 2040 target.
Poland, Czechia and Hungary seem to be pushing for an -80% target. On the other hand, Slovakia, Italy, Croatia, Malta, and Latvia have so far only expressed that they are against the current proposal from the Commission.
The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the centrist liberal Renew groups are in favour of the -90% target, while the Greens’ position is that the EU should aim for climate neutrality by 2040. The Parliament’s prominent hard and far right groups have been adamantly against this level of ambition, though flexibilities provided within the accounting of the target may help this.
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