Finance, implementation and adaptation were central to discussions at the June mid-year UN meetings in Bonn, which set the agenda for the upcoming COP30. Alongside familiar debates, many investors will welcome an enhanced focus on adaptation and resilience.
The Brazilian Presidency reiterated its desire to focus on implementing existing initiatives over announcing new ones, as some 4,000 party delegates revisited the disagreements that framed COP29 and have led to slow progress since.
Last year’s fraught negotiations concluded with developed nations agreeing to channel USD 300 billion per year of climate finance by 2035 to developing countries. This funding is considered vital to help those nations address the impacts of climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Recognising that this figure is well short of the estimated USD 1.3 trillion required, the COP29 and COP30 Presidents promised a Baku to Belém Roadmap. Due in October, and set to cover mitigation and adaptation, it aims to set out a pathway to close this funding gap. The Roadmap will seek to attract wider sources of finance, including from the private sector.
As yet, there is little detail to support these intentions and no clear way for nations or non-state actors to input. Developing nations made their doubts clear across the ten-day conference, calling for developed nations to start delivering on their commitments.
More widely, discussions reiterated that finance is key to realising the ambitious commitments required of countries on climate – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Updated submissions are due by September and some countries including the UK, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates have already submitted plans.
Many more are yet to publish, including China, India, and the European Union, all of which are among the world’s largest global emitters.
Baku to Belém uncertainty
The COP30 President, André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, used Bonn to launch The Action Agenda, emphasising implementation as the priority. Included in this was an ambitious plan to mobilise non-state actors around the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake agreed at COP28.
A veteran diplomat and climate negotiator, the President had earlier launched a COP30 ‘Circle of Finance Ministers’, aimed at crowding in key decision makers on the Baku to Belém Roadmap.
Unlike the painstaking final draft released at the end of each COP, countries will not be asked to agree on the text, though the Presidency is clearly driving broad engagement efforts on multiple fronts. The host team were highly visible across the ten days, consulting widely with various parties and stakeholders.
Critics met them with valid concerns over the lack of clarity on timelines and the inclusivity of the process, signalling that these Roadmap discussions may come to define COP30.
Elevating adaptation and resilience
On adaptation, the Presidency made clear that this topic is no longer on the sidelines. Throughout the conference there were strong and clear messages on the urgent need to elevate adaptation and resilience across all discussions.
This included positive progress on the Global Goal to Adaption, a key item to be negotiated in Belém. The goal aims to help safeguard communities and the economies they depend on from the increasing physical risks of climate change, and discussions in Bonn refined the list of indicators which will measure progress. This is an encouraging development and raises hopes of a positive outcome later this year.
Concentrating efforts on the implementation of existing plans and reducing new announcements is a clear, shared goal across countries.
How to finance these adaptation efforts proved more complex and was a frequent sticking point in the main negotiations. There was notably more optimism in the side events, where the Presidencies and senior representatives called on the Head of States to speak loudly on adaptation, signalling broad support and the need for greater private sector collaboration.
Opportunities before Belém
If the Presidency can successfully address concerns on the Roadmap process and ways to contribute, they can build consensus ahead of COP30. Doing so could lead to new opportunities for engagement with wider non-state actors, including investors.
This engagement is vital. Financial stakeholders are best placed to identify potential barriers and can share learnings from progress at the industry level. The Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Investor Taskforce, an industry-led initiative convened by UK government ministers and administered by IIGCC, is one such example.
Addressing the divisions, the Action Agenda is a welcome announcement which could build trust. Concentrating efforts on the implementation of existing plans and reducing new announcements is a clear, shared goal across countries.
On adaptation and resilience, a renewed focus is well timed. A&R was a headline topic at the recent IIGCC Summit and more widely across London Climate Action Week. At the event we released new guidance on climate resilience, the first of its kind, and an updated version of the Physical Climate Risk Appraisal Methodology to advance thinking in this space.
Clear policy signals are vital to capitalise on this interest, both globally and at the market-level through policy frameworks that incentivise private actors to put forward resilience solutions.
Across all climate goals, collaboration is key to creating real world progress and a more resilient economy. Investors look to governments to set the direction of travel, and are prepared to meet those policy signals to realise ambition.
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