COP30 in Belém – the so-called “Amazon COP” – delivered a mixed outcome that falls short of the clarity investors need to accelerate climate action, while still creating some important entry points for future work on adaptation, just transition and transition roadmaps.
For IIGCC, the task is now to convert these imperfect outcomes into practical signals and frameworks that can support a transition in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the latest science.
The “Amazon COP”: ambition under strain
Over 55,000 people descended on Belém for a COP that was deliberately placed in the heart of the Amazon and framed as a turning point for delivery, ten years on from Paris. Against a challenging geopolitical backdrop, negotiations overran by more than a day and closed without providing the clear direction that global economic and financial actors require to step up investment in mitigation and adaptation.
The final package disappointed expectations of a strong signal to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, but did register some positive steps on adaptation finance and a new just transition mechanism.
Finance: centre stage, but no step change
Finance was again at the centre of the talks, but went out without the decisive ‘bang’ that many had hoped for. The “Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3 trillion” in climate finance by 2035 received little substantive discussion in Belém. The final mutirão decision merely “takes note” of the roadmap and reaffirms the New Collective Quantified Goal, without setting out an operational and credible way forward.
For investors, this lack of implementation plan is a missed opportunity. Supporting analysis published around the roadmap suggest roughly half of the investment needed to reach USD 1.3 trillion would need to come from private sources, underlining the importance of clear policy signals, risk-sharing mechanisms and institutional arrangements that can crowd in private capital at scale. Yet COP30 ultimately failed to send a strong message to markets that these enabling conditions will be put in place.
Adaptation and resilience: foundation, not fulfilment
Adaptation finance was one of the flagship themes of the Brazilian presidency, and expectations were high. In the final hours of negotiation, the outcome was weakened and falls far short of the ambitious vision many had hoped for, even if it does provide a foundation to build on in 2026. The agreed text “calls for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035”, but crucially does not specify a baseline or clarify the respective roles of public and private sources.
From IIGCC’s perspective, this is not enough to meet the needs of investors and businesses increasingly focused on adaptation and resilience. As investor interest in this area continues to grow, clearer policy frameworks are needed to create fiscal incentives that strengthen the short-term financial case for resilience investments and significantly scale up capital flows for adaptation.
Just transition: a welcome breakthrough
One of the most encouraging outcomes is the breakthrough on just transition. Countries agreed the “Belém Action Mechanism”, a new just transition mechanism designed to ensure that the shift to a green economy is fair for everyone, including groups that are often marginalised in decision‑making, such as women and Indigenous peoples. The mechanism will promote cooperation through technical assistance, capacity building and knowledge‑sharing between countries.
Although the final text stops short of stronger language on energy transition and fossil fuels, it does deliver robust recognition of Indigenous rights and social dimensions, which are increasingly central to investor stewardship and risk management. IIGCC welcomes this development and will continue to build its own work on the just transition, supporting investors to integrate these issues into engagement, capital allocation and policy advocacy.
Forests: still at the margins
Despite COP30’s Amazon location, forests remained frustratingly peripheral in the final negotiated outcomes. The summit opened with the launch of Brazil’s Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), backed at this stage by a smaller initial capitalisation from sponsor countries including Brazil, Indonesia, France, Norway and Germany, reaching around USD 6.5 billion. The facility’s innovative model aims to generate revenues to pay tropical forest countries for keeping forests standing, but reaching its initial target of USD 25 billion from sponsor countries will be essential to attract private investment at scale.
Alongside this, several negotiators pushed hard for a deforestation roadmap, which attracted strong backing but ultimately did not make it into the final text. For investors, this leaves a significant gap in the policy architecture and global signals needed to guide long‑term capital flows into forest protection and deforestation-free supply chains.
Roadmaps: growing momentum, but outside the text
Roadmaps were a key topic at COP30, with over 80 countries and investor groups like IIGCC calling for a clear fossil fuel transition roadmap. However, after prolonged negotiations, the final text did not include such a roadmap, disappointing investors who see these as vital for aligning finance with a just transition. Still, there was progress outside formal talks: Colombia and the Netherlands will co-host a 2026 conference on fossil fuel transition, and Brazil announced it will develop separate roadmaps on halting deforestation and fossil fuels, offering future opportunities to apply investor-backed principles.
Trade also featured prominently for the first time, with debates on unilateral trade measures like border carbon adjustments, which some fear could disadvantage developing countries. COP30 launched the Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFCCT) and planned dialogues through 2028 to promote cooperation on trade and climate. Looking ahead, Australia and Türkiye will co-host COP31 in Antalya in 2026, and Addis Ababa will host COP32 in 2027, setting the stage for turning COP30’s partial progress into stronger future commitments.
Conclusion: work still do to, momentum to build on
Overall, COP30’s outcome does not match the urgency highlighted in the latest science and NDC synthesis reports, nor does it fully answer the scale of the financing and policy shifts required. Yet within and beyond the negotiating rooms, the Action Agenda clearly demonstrated that momentum towards a decarbonised, climate-resilient economy is real, with investors, businesses and civil society showcasing practical solutions and seizing new opportunities.
IIGCC is proud to have contributed to the Action Agenda process in Belém and looks forward to build on the incremental but real advances at COP30 on adaptation, just transition, and roadmaps to continue advocate clear, accountable and investible policies that support investors in harnessing the opportunities of the transition.
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